When you are betting online, there is one element that may seem a bit confusing, particularly for beginners: changing probabilities.
Why do the odds change in the period before a competition? What is the best way to place a sports bet online and how can you take advantage of changes in the odds? These are all kinds of questions that we will see in this guide.
We will decompose everything in a pleasant and direct way so that at the end of the article you have a good understanding of how the system works. If we have done our job well, the next time you want to bet online, whether you are a football fan or you like to enter the new and exciting world of electronic sports, you should be able to make really good and insightful decisions.
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Your bet will remain the same even when the odds change.
When we talk about the odds that change for online sports betting, it is better to make something very clear at the beginning to clear up any potential confusion. When you place a bet and really put your money, nothing changes for you after that point, even if the bookmaker ends up changing your odds.
In other words, as a customer, your bet will not change once you have paid your money, even if the odds offered later end up being different from what you agreed to.
You may think it's like being a customer in a store. If you buy a new coat for £ 50 before the store makes a sale, do not expect to get money from that coat one or two days later, once the sale begins and the coat is reduced to £ 40. You buy the coat at that price of 50 pounds and that's it. Well, in the same way, with sports betting you pay your money to place your bet on certain odds and nothing changes for you after that point, even if different clients receive different treatment.
Why do the odds in sports betting change?
In essence, the odds offered by a sports betting for a particular competition, be it a horse race, a boxing match or the F1 Grand Prix, will change in the pre-event period for three reasons. Sometimes it is due to breaking news that the expected results change; Sometimes it is because the bookmaker tries to balance the books and sometimes it is because the bookmaker tries to keep up with his competitors.
Breaking news changes a prediction
If the star player of a soccer team goes out on a wild night two days before the big game and suffers an injury on the dance floor, this has important consequences for the team. How will you score those spectacular goals with a broken finger? Will the team also do it without its contagious charisma? Most likely, the team will not be as successful unless there are some equally good substitutes available.
What does sports betting do in response to this information? They change their prediction of the outcome of the game and change the odds accordingly. That is one of the reasons why the odds will change. Of course, it can be more complex than that, taking into account all kinds of small factors that can affect the form, but basically, this is a big part of changing the odds.
In order for sports bets to win money and not only distribute exactly the same amount they receive, or less, they have to make sure they balance their books. This means that sometimes they may want to encourage customers to bet on one competitor rather than the other, so they are selling more bets on one side than the other. Returning to the example of our store, it is as if the owner wanted to get rid of a stock load before they expire; It is worth the price to be reduced for this to happen.